Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I—Calculation methods

ABSTRACT

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTI_proposed/IESTI_current and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.     

《环境监测 分析方法标准制修订技术导则》(HJ 168—2010)对土壤环境监测标准制修订适用性探讨

针对土壤环境监测的复杂性和特殊性,从空白试验、检出限、方法验证、质量控制和标准文本等方面,指出了《环境监测分析方法标准制修订技术导则》《HJ 168—2010》对土壤环境监测标准制修订工作的适用性和执行中存在的问题。提出,为保证土壤标准制修订质量和标准执行质量,应研究适宜土壤监测方法标准的质量控制指标体系和评价体系,及时修订《HJ 168—2010》或发布补充要求;对现有土壤监测方法标准进行技术评估,加强对于土壤标准制修订工作的指导和监管。     

Investigating cumulative effects across ecological scales

Species, habitats, and ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, fueling a rapidly expanding research program to understand the cumulative impacts of these environmental modifications. Since the 1970s, a growing set of methods has been developed through two parallel, sometimes connected, streams of research within the applied and academic realms to assess cumulative effects. Past reviews of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) methods focused on approaches used by practitioners. Academic research has developed several distinct and novel approaches to conducting CEA. Understanding the suite of methods that exist will help practitioners and academics better address various ecological foci (physiological responses, population impacts, ecosystem impacts) and ecological complexities (synergistic effects, impacts across space and time). We reviewed 6 categories of methods (experimental, meta-analysis, single-species modeling, mapping, qualitative modeling, and multispecies modeling) and examined the ability of those methods to address different levels of complexity. We focused on research gaps and emerging priorities. We found that no single method assessed impacts across the 4 ecological foci and 6 ecological complexities considered. We propose that methods can be used in combination to improve understanding such that multimodel inference can provide a suite of comparable outputs, mapping methods can help prioritize localized models or experimental gaps, and future experiments can be paired from the outset with models they will inform.     

中国土壤环境监测方法现状、问题及建议

综述了目前中国现行的土壤环境监测国家标准方法和环保、农业、林业等行业标准方法,指出国家标准和环保行业标准方法侧重于土壤污染物的检测,而农业和林业标准方法侧重于土壤营养元素及其有效态、理化指标的检测。针对现行标准方法存在的一些问题(如检测的土壤污染物种类少、部分方法先进性不足、土壤环境监测的基础研究薄弱以及方法的标准化尚待完善等),提出加强土壤监测标准方法的顶层设计、合理增加土壤污染物的控制种类,及时更新方法、发展多组分测定方法,加强标准方法研究的系统性、协调性,以及逐步增加原位监测标准方法等建议,为土壤监测技术的发展提供借鉴和参考。     

Horizontal lifelines – review of regulations and simple design method considering anchorage rigidity

Among the many occupational risks construction workers encounter every day falling from a height is the most dangerous. The objective of this article is to propose a simple analytical design method for horizontal lifelines (HLLs) that considers anchorage flexibility. The article presents a short review of the standards and regulations/acts/codes concerning HLLs in Canada the USA and Europe. A static analytical approach is proposed considering anchorage flexibility. The analytical results are compared with a series of 42 dynamic fall tests and a SAP2000 numerical model. The experimental results show that the analytical method is a little conservative and overestimates the line tension in most cases with a maximum of 17%. The static SAP2000 results show a maximum 2.1% difference with the analytical method. The analytical method is accurate enough to safely design HLLs and quick design abaci are provided to allow the engineer to make quick on-site verification if needed.     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性，基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法，提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先，利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数，构建管段的影响系数矩阵，并利用信息熵确定管段权重；其次，标准化处理影响系数矩阵，通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法，对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定；最后，根据工程实例进行方法实践，结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理，地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀，而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响，保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

模糊综合评价法在钢铁企业安全投资合理性评价中的应用

为了对钢铁企业安全投资进行模糊综合评价,建立了钢铁企业安全投资的评价体系,确定各因素的权重。得出模糊综合评价矩阵,可对各因素进行评价分析;得出某钢铁企业安全投资现状分数为83.9分,等级为较好,需着重加强安全培训、劳保品、工业卫生等人因素方面的投资;在环境方面的投资较合理。     

飞行员人因可靠性定量预测

为有效预测飞行员的人因可靠性,以保障飞行安全,基于认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM)的扩展法,建立飞行员人因可靠性定量预测模型。依据飞行员的任务特点,调整认知行为及认知功能。通过优化共同绩效条件(CPC)因子水平等级,并增加新的因子,改进CPC因子依赖规则,用于修正因子的初始评估结果,解决扩展法未考虑因子间关系的问题,从而完成模型的建立。利用回看分析法验证模型的有效性,采用所建立的模型和扩展法分别对已发生的飞行案例进行预测,并与实际发生结果对比分析。结果表明,与扩展法相比,采用飞行员定量预测模型得到的预测结果与案例发生结果所反映的控制模式更为匹配。     

综合拉底、扩漏和出矿全过程的底部结构安全性颗粒流模拟技术研究

为探明自然崩落法从拉底崩落至出矿全过程中底部结构节理连续扩展过程与破坏过程规律，采用PFC2D软件，结合RocLab软件反演节理岩体参数，建立229 m×129 m的岩体扩大模型，对拉底崩落至出矿过程进行连续综合计算。研究结果表明:模拟结果及破坏现象与现场监测结果相近，建模与细观参数反演方法适用于该类岩体工程研究；裂纹扩展贯通导致岩体失稳破坏，破坏过程与裂纹扩展具有相对应的阶段特征，裂纹扩展分为崩落前稳定扩展期，崩落与聚矿槽开挖过程加速扩展期和后续持续扩展期；结构破坏分为蕴育过程，扰动失稳过程和宏观破坏过程；较大范围的宏观破坏主要在出矿阶段。该模拟方法与结果可为底部结构维护以及节理岩体长期稳定性研究提供参考。     

Exposure assessment of operators to pesticides in Kongou,a sub-watershed of Niger River valley

The use of pesticides in horticultural sector in Niger has become an integral part of modern agriculture. Nevertheless, their inappropriate use can generate negative health effects to operators. A study was carried out among Kongou farmers in order to assess their potential dermal exposure (PDE). The UK-POEM model was used to quantify the PDE during mixing/loading and application according to the local practices. In order to determine which parts of the operator body are subject to most contamination during spraying and to validate the theoretical model used, a patch method was used with a tartrazine dye. The deposits of the tartrazine on patches were measured by colorimetry thanks to the absorbance value determined after their extraction in water and a calibration curve. A total of ten spraying trials (five trials with the hand-held sprayer and five others with the backpack sprayer) were performed by different producers at 0.5 and 1 m height for each trial. The survey shows that 92% of the farmers are illiterate and the most common active substances identified are organophosphate or pyrethroids insecticides. Seventy percent of operators do not use any personal protective equipment (PPE) during mixing/loading or spraying. The predictive systemic exposure levels vary from 0.0027?mg kg^?1 bw per day to 0.7692?mg kg^?1 bw per day for backpack sprayer and from 0.0261?mg kg^?1 bw per day to 0.9788?mg kg^?1 bw per day for hand-held sprayer, several times higher the Acceptable Operator Exposure Level (AOEL) for some actives substances. Theoretical modeling indicates more exposure of operator by a hand-held sprayer than a backpack sprayer. The patch method results show that the deposits of dye increase when the position of sprayer nozzle increases from 0.5 to 1 m for the two sprayers. All parts of the operator body are contaminated but lower body parts and chest are the most exposed. The patch method results also show that hand spraying contaminates operator more than backpack spraying, confirming the results of the theoretical model.